GAO Junbo, ZHU Xiaowu, YU Chao, MA Zhifei
Journal of Guangzhou University(Natural Science Edition). 2025, 24(4): 1-12.
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Based on the development of Xinyang City, Henan Province, from 2010 to 2020, this study adopts a factor integration perspective. It constructs a multi-dimensional coupled system—comprising the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, a population flow model, a Principal Component Analysis-Back Propagation (PCA-BP) model for land scale prediction, and a GDP prediction model—to simulate the flow and integration patterns of key factors such as talent, capital, and land in 2035. Three scenarios were established: a baseline scenario, an economic priority development scenario, and an agricultural protection development scenario. The results indicate that: under the economic priority scenario, the proportion of urban land is the highest, the population is concentrated in urban areas, and GDP growth is the fastest. Under the agricultural protection scenario, cultivated land is effectively protected, the scope of population outflow is the most extensive, and economic growth is more balanced. Under the baseline scenario, urban-rural development is relatively moderate. The rational allocation of urban-rural factors is crucial to rural revitalization, and policy interventions significantly affect the direction and efficiency of factor flows. By employing machine learning methods to explore path selection and scenario simulation for rural revitalization, this research not only broadens the theoretical paradigms and policy support mechanisms for the field but also provides methodologies and findings that can contribute to the formulation of urban-rural development policies in other regions.